多元金融港股市场月度跟踪（24年12月）：4Q24公募加仓、南向资金大幅流入，港股有望迎来戴维斯双击

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [34]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from significant inflows of domestic long-term capital, which will enhance market liquidity and stability, particularly benefiting the brokerage sector [4][3]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index achieved annual gains of 17.67% and 18.70% respectively in 2024, ranking 7th and 5th globally [4][7]. - The report highlights a notable recovery in IPO activities, with 10 new IPOs raising HKD 376.5 billion in December 2024, a 156% month-on-month increase [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market's sensitivity to external factors has decreased, with a strong performance in 2024 despite global uncertainties [4]. - The average daily trading (ADT) in December 2024 was HKD 1,420 billion, reflecting a 12% month-on-month decline, while the Northbound ADT was RMB 1,906 billion, down 20% [4][12]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent actions include a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points since September 2024, with the target range for the federal funds rate now at [4.25, 4.5]% [4]. - Economic forecasts for 2025 show a slight upward revision in GDP growth to 2.1% and core PCE inflation expectations adjusted to 2.5% [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with high sensitivity to market trading, such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, China Pacific Insurance, and Bank of China Aviation Leasing [4]. - The implementation of policies to encourage long-term capital inflows into the market is expected to provide a significant boost to market confidence [4]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 2024, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 9.18x, placing it in the 24.18% percentile over the past decade, indicating a valuation "discount" compared to global peers [4][8][10].