非酒类食品饮料月度专题：春节动销分化，食品折扣店兴起

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural differentiation in sales during the Spring Festival, with snacks performing relatively well, dairy products showing slight improvement, and frozen food and catering supply chains remaining flat [9][12] - The emergence of food discount stores is noted as a new opportunity in the market, driven by consumer demand for cost-effective options [9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel transformation in the snack category, including changes in key accounts, discount supermarkets, and WeChat stores [9][12] Summary by Sections 1. Structural Differentiation in Spring Festival Sales - Overall sales during the Spring Festival were stable, but internal performance varied, with snacks showing strong growth and dairy products experiencing slight improvement [9] - Major snack brands maintained high growth in January inventory and Spring Festival sales, with large, cost-effective gift boxes performing particularly well [9] - Dairy product sales are expected to remain stable year-on-year, with price pressures expected to narrow compared to the second half of 2024 [9] - The frozen food and catering supply chain saw stable inventory and sales, with consumer (C-end) performance outperforming business (B-end) [9] 2. Emergence of Food Discount Stores - The report identifies three main operating models for food discount stores: membership stores like Aoleqi, domestic discount supermarkets like Lele, and wholesale supermarkets transitioning from snack stores [9][12] - The report suggests that food discount stores are a necessary product of retail channel transformation, with the potential to create new opportunities for certain product categories and companies [12] 3. Fundamental Tracking: January Raw Material Prices - As of January 27, 2025, most core raw material prices continued to decline, which is expected to further release profit elasticity [14] - Specific price changes include: PET down 13.2%, sugar down 8.0%, and fresh milk down 14.8% year-on-year [15][24] 4. Market Tracking: January Stock Price Adjustments - The food and beverage industry index fell by 6.8% from January 1 to January 27, 2025, ranking 29th among 31 sub-industries [36] - Within the non-alcoholic sector, snack and soft drink segments showed relatively narrow declines of -0.8% and -2.6%, respectively [37] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-expectation stocks with potential positive changes in fundamentals, particularly in the condiment sector and snack companies benefiting from discount supermarkets [9][12]