汽车：北美轻型车辆电气化方案

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in North America is expected to be delayed due to regulatory changes under the Trump administration, which may lead to a more gradual transition towards electric vehicles [2][3][12] - The regulatory environment, particularly changes from the EPA and California Air Resources Board (CARB), will significantly impact the electrification forecasts for the automotive industry [4][7] - Traditional automakers will face prolonged profitability challenges as they navigate a mixed powertrain strategy involving Internal Combustion Engines (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), and BEVs [26][27] Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The regulatory landscape is a key driver for xEV adoption, with the Trump administration's policies likely to challenge existing emission standards set by the EPA and CARB [4][6][12] - The CARB's Advanced Clean Cars II regulation mandates that by 2035, all new sales must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), but OEMs can only use PHEVs to meet 20% of their ZEV requirements [7][8] Market Scenarios - The report outlines three scenarios for BEV adoption in North America: an upside scenario where current regulations remain, a baseline scenario with relaxed standards, and a downside scenario where ZEV sales goals are pushed back to 2040 [17][22][23] - In the baseline scenario, the Trump administration's policies would lead to a reliance on hybrid vehicles to meet emission targets, highlighting the importance of regulatory support for BEV adoption [22] Challenges and Opportunities - The delay in BEV adoption will create both challenges and opportunities for automotive suppliers, necessitating a reevaluation of product portfolios and capital allocation strategies [14][27] - Suppliers may face difficulties due to declining EV sales, leading to potential market exits for smaller players unable to cope with low volumes and profitability issues [27][28]