青岛房地产市场2024年回顾和2025年展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Qingdao real estate market, with expectations of moderate recovery in transaction volumes driven by low-price stimuli in 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The Qingdao office market is expected to see a return to average transaction volumes for Grade A offices, with new productivity developments acting as a key driver for economic growth and new demand in the office sector [3]. - The overall office market in Qingdao experienced a significant decline in net absorption in 2024, reaching a historical low of approximately 40,000 square meters, while Grade A office market showed resilience with a net absorption of 63,000 square meters, 44% above the historical average [11]. - The retail market in Qingdao is projected to have a supply peak in 2025, with around 400,000 square meters of new supply, primarily in lower-tier markets, supported by various consumer stimulus policies [13]. Summary by Sections Office Market Overview - The overall office market in Qingdao saw a total supply of approximately 320,000 square meters in 2024, maintaining consistency with the previous two years [11]. - The average effective rent for the overall market was 68 yuan per square meter per month, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [11]. - The vacancy rate for the overall office market increased to 35.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter [11]. Grade A Office Data - As of Q4 2024, the total area of Grade A offices was 1,173,057 square meters, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34,869 square meters [8]. - The average rent for Grade A offices was 100 yuan per square meter per month, down 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 6.6% year-on-year [8]. - The vacancy rate for Grade A offices was reported at 35.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [8]. Retail Market Overview - The retail market in Qingdao recorded a net absorption of only 55,000 square meters in 2024, significantly below the historical average [23]. - The average rent for quality retail properties was 187 yuan per square meter per month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [23]. - The overall retail market vacancy rate stood at 8.1%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [16].