建筑施工行业2024年信用回顾与2025年展望

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is negative [1] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing growth in total output value for 2024, but the decline in new contract amounts has widened compared to 2023, indicating potential further downward pressure on future output growth [2][6] - The industry is primarily driven by two downstream investment demands: real estate and infrastructure. While real estate investment is showing signs of contraction, infrastructure investment continues to provide support [2][11] - The market share of leading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is high and has been increasing, demonstrating strong resilience, while many small and medium-sized enterprises face greater challenges [2][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total output value of the construction industry is projected to reach 32.65 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.90%, a decrease of 1.90 percentage points from the previous year [7][11] - New contract amounts are expected to decline further, with a cumulative total of 33.75 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.21% [7][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with total sales area dropping by 12.90% year-on-year and total sales value decreasing by 17.10% [14] - New construction area is expected to decline by 23.00% in 2024, while completed area is projected to decrease by 27.70% [14] Infrastructure Sector - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 4.40% year-on-year in 2024, with significant growth in water conservancy and railway construction, while public facility management investments are declining [17][22] - The investment growth rates for water management and railway sectors are 41.70% and 13.50%, respectively, while public facility management is facing a decline of 3.10% [17] Overseas Engineering - The value of new contracts for overseas engineering projects has significantly increased, with a total of 198.79 billion USD in new contracts signed in 2024, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year growth [24] - Chinese construction enterprises are primarily focusing on "Belt and Road" countries, with a notable gap in overseas business management and risk control compared to Western firms [24][26] Policy Environment - The government is promoting high-quality development in the construction industry through policies aimed at industrialization, digitalization, and green transformation [38][40] - Recent regulations, including the PPP new rules, aim to ensure orderly implementation of projects and address potential risks associated with project financing [41][43]