中国消费品1月需求报告：必选消费短期依然承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several companies in the food and beverage sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Eastroc Beverage [1]. Core Insights - In January 2025, four out of eight tracked industries showed positive growth, while four experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth included catering, condiments, frozen foods, and soft drinks, whereas sub-premium and above liquor, dairy products, and beer saw single-digit declines. Mass liquor experienced double-digit declines [4][36]. - Despite the Spring Festival, the focus of consumer spending has shifted towards optional consumption areas such as travel and entertainment, putting pressure on mandatory consumption sectors like food and beverage [4][36]. Summary by Category Liquor - Sub-Premium and Above Liquor: January revenue was 51 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year. Although there was a slight improvement in consumption around the New Year and Spring Festival, the overall demand remains low, leading to continued negative revenue growth [13]. - Mass and Below Liquor: Revenue for January was 22 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year, marking 12 consecutive months of negative growth. The focus remains on inventory reduction and cash preservation [15]. Beer - January revenue for the beer industry was 18.3 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year. The demand during the Spring Festival showed improvement compared to the previous year, aided by favorable weather conditions [18]. Condiments - The condiment industry reported January revenue of 46 billion, up 3.4% year-on-year. Demand remained stable during the holiday season, with strong performance in the catering sector [20]. Dairy Products - January revenue for the dairy industry was 45.5 billion, down 2.2% year-on-year. Sales performance was in line with market expectations, with major manufacturers controlling inventory levels [23]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry saw January revenue of 14.5 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year. Traditional frozen products faced weak demand, while pre-prepared dishes performed well [25]. Soft Drinks - January revenue for the soft drink industry was 92.5 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year. The performance was relatively flat due to high base effects from the previous year, with notable differences in product categories [28]. Catering - The catering sector reported total revenue of 16.5 billion in January, up 4.6% year-on-year. However, the performance of chain restaurants showed signs of weakness during the holiday period [30].