上海写字楼市场报告 2024年 Q4

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Shanghai Grade A office market, with expectations of continued rental declines and rising vacancy rates [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall market remains weak, with average rents continuing to decline and vacancy rates increasing. The average rent fell by 3.3% to RMB 7.03 per square meter per day, while the vacancy rate rose to 21.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [2][3]. - In 2025, approximately 1.7 million square meters of office space is expected to be added to the market, posing significant challenges for landlords in terms of absorption [2]. - The low economy sectors, driven by capital investment and policy incentives, are anticipated to become new growth points for leasing demand [2]. Supply and Demand - In Q4 2024, three new projects added a total of 189,145 square meters of office space, contributing to a total annual supply decrease of 19.3% year-on-year to 1,104,521 square meters [8]. - The net absorption for Q4 was only 34,991 square meters, leading to a total annual net absorption of 256,413 square meters, a 50% decline year-on-year [8]. - Over 65% of leasing transactions in Q4 were due to corporate relocations, with financial, TMT, retail, and automotive manufacturing sectors being the primary demand sources [11]. Rental Trends - The average rent for Grade A offices continued to decline, with the core business district experiencing the largest drop of 3.8% to RMB 9.56 per square meter per day [8][14]. - The rental gap between core and emerging business districts has narrowed to RMB 3.66 per square meter per day, indicating a shift in tenant preferences towards more cost-effective options [8]. - Emerging business districts saw a rental decline of 1.8% to RMB 5.90 per square meter per day, with some areas like Qiantan showing a decrease of 2.3% to RMB 7.02 per square meter per day [14]. Investment Market - In Q4 2024, the Shanghai office investment market recorded 12 major transactions totaling over RMB 5.5 billion, with annual investment transactions nearing RMB 40 billion [15]. - 40% of market transactions were attributed to domestic financial institutions and high-tech companies, indicating a strong demand for self-use properties among newly listed tech firms [15].