电气设备行业专题研究：人形机器人系列专题之减速器，供需缺口有望出现，国内厂商加速导入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the electric equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential supply-demand gap in the precision reducer market, driven by the increasing demand for humanoid robots, particularly from Tesla's Optimus project, which is expected to see production ramp up significantly in 2026 and 2027 [6][10] - The global market for precision reducers is projected to reach approximately 150 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2024 to 2030 [6][10] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate their entry into the market as supply-demand gaps emerge, presenting opportunities for local firms in areas such as OEM, second-tier supply, and component supply [6][10] Summary by Sections 1. Reducer Types and Characteristics - Reducers are classified into three main types: planetary reducers, harmonic reducers, and RV reducers, each with distinct structural complexities and load capacities [10][16] - Planetary reducers are compact and efficient, commonly used in servo motors, while harmonic reducers are suitable for light-load applications, and RV reducers are designed for medium to heavy-load scenarios [10][16][19] 2. Market Space - The report estimates that the global market for precision reducers will reach 150 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 29% from 2024 to 2030 [6][10] - The demand for precision reducers is primarily driven by the industrial robotics sector, which is expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 4% from 2024 to 2027 [10][44] 3. Domestic Manufacturers and Investment Opportunities - Key domestic companies identified as beneficiaries include: 1. Zhongdali De: Mastering core technologies with a comprehensive product structure [2] 2. Fengli Intelligent: A leader in small modulus gears, with an increasing share of precision reducer business [2] 3. Green Harmonic: A domestic leader in harmonic reducers, expanding into global markets [2] 4. Slin Technology: Stable traditional automotive bearing business with potential breakthroughs in harmonic reducers [2] 5. Henggong Precision: Leading domestic market share with continuous casting technology [2] 6. Huandong Technology: A domestic leader in RV reducers [2] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap in the reducer market around 2027, as Japanese manufacturers are expanding capacity conservatively, leading to slower overall industry capacity growth [6][10] - The demand for reducers is expected to surge due to the anticipated production of humanoid robots, with Tesla's Optimus robot projected to require a significant number of reducers per unit [6][10]