【NIFD季报】一揽子增量政策落地显效 宏观杠杆率踏上再平衡之路 ——2024年度宏观杠杆率

Investment Rating - The report indicates a passive increase in the macro leverage ratio for 2024, with a rise of 10.1 percentage points, but the growth rate has narrowed compared to 2023 [4][7][8]. Core Insights - The macro leverage ratio has increased due to a simultaneous decline in debt expansion and nominal economic growth, with the nominal GDP growth slowing to 4.2% [4][12][13]. - The report emphasizes the need for new leverage subjects and methods to enhance nominal economic growth in 2025, focusing on stabilizing household leverage and supporting private and tech enterprises [4][38][41]. Summary by Sections Overall Judgment - The macro leverage ratio rose from 290.2% to 290.6% in Q4 2024, with household leverage decreasing by 0.2 percentage points and government leverage increasing by 2.1 percentage points [7][8]. - For the entire year, the macro leverage ratio increased by 10.1 percentage points, with household leverage decreasing by 0.5 percentage points [8][12]. Sectoral Leverage Analysis Household Sector - Household leverage decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 61.4% by the end of 2024, influenced by weak consumption and a sluggish real estate market [15][20]. - The report notes a slight rebound in household debt growth to 3.4% in Q4 2024, driven by improved housing demand and durable goods consumption [17][21]. Non-Financial Enterprises - Non-financial enterprise leverage increased by 4.5 percentage points to 168.4%, with a notable slowdown in debt growth due to high financing costs and profit declines [22][23]. - The report highlights a continuous decline in enterprise debt growth, attributed to weak credit demand and the transition to new economic drivers [25][27]. Government Sector - Government leverage rose by 6.1 percentage points to 60.8%, reflecting a significant increase in fiscal expansion efforts [31][33]. - The report indicates that the government is actively increasing leverage to support private sector balance sheet recovery and stimulate domestic demand [34][45]. Financial Sector - The financial sector's leverage showed a mixed trend, with asset-side leverage increasing slightly while liability-side leverage rose significantly [35][36]. - The report notes that the financial sector's leverage dynamics are influenced by liquidity pressures and regulatory changes [37]. Macro Leverage Trends and Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that the macro leverage ratio will continue to rise due to declining nominal GDP growth, emphasizing the importance of finding new leverage subjects to expand domestic demand [38][39]. - It suggests that stabilizing household leverage and supporting private and tech enterprises will be crucial for economic recovery [41][42].