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电子烟:HNB方兴未艾,思摩尔成长可期
国联证券·2025-02-07 06:00

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The global HNB market is steadily expanding, with the patent settlement between Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco creating new development opportunities. It is expected that HNB product sales in the U.S. will gradually increase starting in 2025. British American Tobacco recently launched two new HNB products, Glo Hilo and Glo Hilo Plus, which have multiple advantages over Philip Morris International's IQOS series. Its core supplier, Smoore International, is expected to benefit from this growth. Additionally, Smoore International's stock incentive plan, which targets high market value, reflects management's confidence in the HNB business outlook [3][14][39]. Summary by Sections 1. HNB Industry: Market Steady Expansion, IQOS Continues to Lead - The HNB tobacco product market is experiencing steady growth, with a global terminal sales revenue of 34.5billionin2023,representingayearonyearincreaseof1234.5 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%. The Asia-Pacific region is the largest HNB market, with sales of 14.8 billion in 2023, accounting for 43% of the global market [11][19][21]. - The patent settlement between Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco in 2024 allows both companies to innovate and iterate their products, which is expected to bring new opportunities for the U.S. market [23][26]. 2. Smoore: HNB Business Expected to Create a Second Growth Curve - British American Tobacco launched the Glo Hilo series in Serbia, which features innovative heating technology, significantly reduced preheating time, and improved flavor. The Glo Hilo series is expected to enhance British American Tobacco's market share in the HNB sector, benefiting its core supplier, Smoore International [10][13][32]. - Smoore International's stock incentive plan, which is linked to achieving high market value, demonstrates management's confidence in the company's growth prospects [36][38]. 3. Investment Recommendation: Positive Outlook for Smoore International's HNB Business - The report maintains a positive outlook for Smoore International's HNB business, anticipating that the company will leverage its HNB operations to create a second growth curve. The expected increase in U.S. HNB product sales starting in 2025 and the advantages of British American Tobacco's new products position Smoore International favorably for future growth [14][39].