关税重启：外部环境与内部预期

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - On February 1, 2025, the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China, effective February 4, 2025[1] - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from China has approached 20% since the trade war began in 2018, while the effective rates for Canada and Mexico remain below 1%[2] - The U.S. administration's tariffs target major trade deficit countries, with China, Mexico, and Canada accounting for nearly 45% of U.S. imports and over 60% of its trade deficit[3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the tariff announcements, global stock markets experienced adjustments, reflecting that the tariffs were beyond market expectations[6] - Despite the initial shock, the market has shown signs of desensitization to tariff threats, viewing them as a means to achieve strategic goals rather than an end[6] - The market anticipates further tariff increases on the EU and other regions, which may suppress global risk appetite and strengthen the U.S. dollar[6] Group 3: China's Response - China announced a 10%-15% tariff on 80 U.S. goods starting February 10, 2025, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery[2] - The Chinese government is also implementing export controls on rare earth resources and initiating antitrust investigations against U.S. companies like Google to strengthen its negotiation position[2] Group 4: Sector Performance and Investment Strategy - In the context of the 2018 trade war, sectors like communication, energy, and utilities showed resilience, while technology and healthcare sectors experienced significant volatility[8] - Current market conditions suggest a defensive strategy focusing on high-dividend sectors such as utilities and telecommunications, while also considering opportunities in AI and semiconductor industries due to local supply chain developments[8]