2025年2月资产配置报告：春季躁动再临，不一样的“哑铃”布局

Economic Overview - The US economy maintained strength with a Q4 2024 GDP growth rate of 2.3%, driven by a 4.2% increase in personal consumption expenditures[38] - Inflation in the US rebounded, with the CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year in December 2024, influenced by higher energy prices[31] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%[38] Trade and Tariff Risks - The US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, with China responding with countermeasures, increasing market uncertainty[41] - Trump's administration is likely to use tariffs as negotiation tools rather than purely trade restrictions, with a key trade investigation report due on April 1, 2025[41] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic economic recovery in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, supported by policy stimulus and external demand, with a notable 10.9% year-on-year increase in exports in December[44][51] - However, internal demand remains weak, with December retail sales growth at 3.7%, below expectations[51] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - A-share market sentiment is relatively optimistic for February, with expectations of a "spring rally" led by AI-related sectors, while caution is advised due to tariff impacts[9] - The report suggests a "dumbbell" strategy, favoring technology and small-cap stocks initially, transitioning to dividend and large-cap stocks later in the month[9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI and technology sectors in early February, with a shift towards dividend strategies and large-cap stocks as the month progresses[9] - Maintain a diversified asset allocation, including US stocks, bonds, and commodities like gold, while being cautious on oil investments[11]