房地产行业2024年年报业绩前瞻：政策面践行止跌回稳，基本面承压中磨底

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the performance of real estate companies will remain under pressure in 2024 due to declining profit margins and impairment pressures, with a projected "L"-shaped weak recovery trajectory expected in 2025-2026 [4][5]. - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing the market, with measures aimed at repairing household balance sheets and ensuring a "stop the decline" approach, which is expected to gradually improve the industry's fundamentals [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant decline in sales and land acquisition activities, with major real estate companies experiencing varying degrees of profit growth, ranging from +10% to -100% [4][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Outlook - The real estate sector is projected to face continued performance pressure in 2024, primarily due to tight funding affecting completion and settlement progress, alongside ongoing inventory impairment pressures [4][5]. - Sales for the top 50 real estate companies are expected to decline by 34% year-on-year in 2024, with a notable narrowing of the sales decline in Q4 2024 [4][6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth for 2024: - Companies with growth of +10% to +20%: China Merchants Shekou [5] - Companies with growth of 0% to +10%: Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings [5] - Companies with growth of -10% to 0%: China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group [5] - Companies with growth of -30% to -10%: China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, Longfor Group [5] - Companies with growth of -50% to -30%: Huafa Group, Greentown China [5] - Companies with growth of -50% to -100%: Poly Developments, Jianfa Shares [5] - Companies expected to incur losses: Vanke A, Gemdale Group [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and those that are undervalued, as well as firms benefiting from land acquisition and urban renewal policies [4][6].