中国房地产研报：津汉苏二手成交套数不升反降，极致刚需卖不动了？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a resilient performance in the second-hand housing market, despite a slight decline in transaction volumes in specific cities [3][15]. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in 2024 is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with a total transaction area of 230 million square meters across 30 key cities, representing a 6% increase compared to 2023, reaching a historical high [3]. - The cities of Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with decreases of 4%, 2%, and 4% respectively, yet overall performance remains better than that of new homes [5][15]. - The purchasing power for entry-level homes (below 2 million) has decreased, while the demand for mid-to-high-end properties (above 6 million) remains stable [7][15]. Summary by Sections Transaction Volume and Structure - In 2024, the transaction volumes in Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou showed a decline of less than 5%, with second-hand housing transactions maintaining a higher resilience compared to new homes [3][5]. - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has been increasing since 2021, reaching 61%, 57%, and 62% in Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou respectively by 2024, marking increases of 14, 20, and 21 percentage points [5]. Price Segmentation - The purchasing power for homes priced below 2 million has declined, while the mid-to-high-end market remains robust, with significant increases in transaction proportions for homes priced below 2 million in Wuhan (82%) and Suzhou (52%) [7][15]. - The segment of homes priced between 2-3 million has seen the most significant decline in transaction volumes [7]. Area Segmentation - The proportion of transactions for homes under 70 square meters has significantly decreased, while larger homes (100-160 square meters) have seen an increase in demand, indicating a shift towards larger, more functional living spaces [8][15]. - In Tianjin and Wuhan, the proportion of transactions for homes under 70 square meters has dropped by over 2 percentage points, while the 100-120 square meter segment in Wuhan has increased by 2.54 percentage points [8][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand ratio in Tianjin and Wuhan remains stable, while Suzhou faces an oversupply issue, particularly in the 70 square meters and below, and 140 square meters and above segments, with a supply-demand ratio of 1.93 [9][13]. - The overall market is expected to continue its high-level fluctuation, with Tianjin and Wuhan showing balanced supply and demand, while Suzhou may face inventory pressure in specific segments [15].