中国房地产研报：盘点·刚需为主、顶豪增色助力深圳2024年楼市成交唯一正增长

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Shenzhen real estate market, highlighting it as the only city with positive growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions in 2024 [4][19]. Core Insights - Shenzhen's real estate market experienced significant growth in 2024, with new housing transaction area and value ranking in the top 10 nationwide, achieving a year-on-year increase of 34% in area and 29% in value for new homes, and 62% in area and 51% in value for second-hand homes [4][6][19]. - The market's recovery was largely attributed to the 9.26 policy changes, which included relaxed purchase restrictions and reduced down payments, leading to a surge in transaction volumes, particularly in the fourth quarter [5][19]. - The new housing market showed a strong demand for properties in the 70-90 square meter range, with a significant portion of transactions occurring in the 300-500 million yuan price range, which increased from 35% to 41% year-on-year [6][9][20]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - New housing transactions in Shenzhen were characterized by a strong demand for both affordable and luxury segments, with the 70-90 square meter and 300-500 million yuan categories making up approximately 40% of total transactions [6][8]. - The top-selling projects were concentrated in areas like Nanshan, Longhua, and Baoan, with notable sales figures exceeding 500 units for several high-end developments [15][16]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market saw a shift in purchasing power, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced below 300 million yuan, while higher price segments experienced a decline [10][13][20]. - The primary transaction area for second-hand homes mirrored that of new homes, with a focus on the 70-90 square meter range, indicating a consistent demand for affordable housing options [10][11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a potential cooling period in the Shenzhen real estate market following the initial surge driven by policy changes, although continued policy support could sustain market activity [20].