中国房地产研报：盘点·2024年豪宅新房“越贵越买”、二手相对乏力为哪般？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the high-end residential market, particularly for new homes priced above 30 million yuan, which are experiencing significant demand growth [3][17]. Core Insights - The high-end residential market in 2024 is characterized by a strong performance in new homes, especially those priced above 30 million yuan, with a notable increase in transactions compared to the previous year [3][17]. - New homes are showing a trend of "the more expensive, the more they sell," contrasting with the relatively weak performance of the second-hand market [3][17]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of transactions for new homes priced over 100 million yuan, which doubled by 144% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in the same price range remained flat compared to 2023 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: High-End Residential Market Performance - In 2024, the number of transactions for new homes priced above 30 million yuan reached 4,356 units, a 65% increase year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 17% increase with 1,497 units sold [3][4]. - The report notes that the increase in new home sales is significantly higher than that of second-hand homes, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards new properties [3][4]. Section 2: Market Concentration and City Analysis - The concentration of high-end new home transactions in first-tier cities is increasing, with Shanghai remaining the primary market for high-end demand, accounting for 60% of new home transactions above 30 million yuan in 2024 [7][10]. - The report shows that the transaction volume for new homes in first-tier cities has risen, while the second-hand market has seen a decline in transaction volume [3][7]. Section 3: Supply Dynamics and Product Innovation - The surge in new home transactions is closely linked to an increase in supply, particularly in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where the supply of new homes priced above 30 million yuan has doubled compared to 2023 [8][9]. - The report identifies three key characteristics of successful new luxury home products: low-density communities, high efficiency in space utilization, and designs that resonate with local cultural sentiments [11][12]. Section 4: Second-Hand Market Challenges - The second-hand luxury market is facing challenges, with a decrease in new listings and a slight decline in prices, making it less attractive to high-end buyers compared to new homes [13][15]. - The report indicates that the overall sentiment among sellers in the second-hand market remains cautious, leading to lower listing activity and a lack of competitive pricing [15][16]. Section 5: Future Outlook - The report concludes that the trend of new homes outperforming second-hand homes is likely to continue, with ongoing competition among regions and products expected to intensify [17].