PRADA(01913) 海通国际·2025-02-08 10:24Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Prada, projecting a target price of 81.87 HKD based on a 25X P/E valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revitalization of the brand and anticipates growth in performance, driven by strategic adjustments and strong brand management [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1913 in Milan, Prada has undergone significant transformations, including a strategic shift since 2016 that has led to a 113% increase in market value from 2018 to 2024 [3][12]. - The company operates three main brands: Prada, MIU MIU, and Church's, with a focus on leather goods and fashion [12][21]. Industry Position - Prada ranks 8th in revenue among major luxury brands, with a revenue of 4.726 billion euros in 2023, and has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in revenue and 27.3% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [18][21]. - The company's P/E ratio is positioned at 21.5x in 2023, which is lower compared to peers like Hermès and LVMH, indicating potential for valuation improvement [18][19]. Operational Review - The company has successfully implemented a comprehensive strategic transformation since 2016, including streamlining direct stores and enhancing e-commerce channels, resulting in a recovery in revenue and profitability [28][36]. - The introduction of Raf Simons as co-creative director in 2020 has revitalized the Prada brand, leading to increased brand visibility and sales performance [40][41]. Brand Performance - MIU MIU has evolved into a strong independent brand, with significant growth in brand heat and market presence, particularly among younger demographics [40][52]. - The report notes that both Prada and MIU MIU have seen substantial increases in online engagement and brand ranking, indicating a successful repositioning in the luxury market [47][48]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for Prada are expected to reach 5.444 billion euros in 2024, with net profits forecasted at 824 million euros, reflecting a growth trajectory in the luxury sector [3][36]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of luxury goods, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, suggesting continued demand despite macroeconomic challenges [3][5].