美国1月劳动数据修正：修正噪音下的劳动市场韧性

Labor Market Overview - Non-farm employment increased by 143,000 in January, slightly below the median expectation of 170,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.1%[3] - Year-on-year wage growth for non-farm payrolls was 4.06%, maintaining above 4% for four consecutive months[2] Data Adjustments and Trends - The total number of employed individuals increased by 2.234 million from December 2024, primarily due to full-time employment adjustments[3] - The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.6%[3] - The total labor population was revised upward by approximately 2.1 million, with about 2 million being employed individuals[10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in Q1 2025, but there is potential for a reduction of 50-75 basis points later in the year as inflation stabilizes[6] - Market expectations indicate only one rate cut in July 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook on the labor market[6] Employment Composition - Job creation was primarily in the service sector, with education and healthcare contributing 61,000 jobs[8] - The manufacturing sector remains weak, with no new jobs added in January despite improvements in the ISM manufacturing PMI[8] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential acceleration in the labor market and unexpected liquidity issues within the banking system[42] - Statistical discrepancies in labor market data due to different survey methodologies may affect interpretations[42]