轻工行业行业专题：以旧换新政策加力，重视消费结构化机会

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the light industry sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Morning Glory, Baia, Dengkang Dental, and Mingyue Lens [5][10][18]. Core Insights - The light industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumer demand, particularly through the continuation of the "old for new" policy for consumer goods in 2025, which is projected to enhance the performance of leading companies [9][10]. - The packaging sector is anticipated to see growth driven by increased demand from downstream industries, with a focus on optimizing the competitive landscape [11][12]. - The toy industry is exhibiting high growth potential, with various sub-sectors like building blocks and blind boxes showing promising performance [13][14]. - The paper industry is facing short-term profit pressures due to weak demand and declining raw material prices, but a recovery is expected as supply constraints ease [15]. - Essential consumer goods are seeing a recovery in demand, with companies like Morning Glory and Dengkang Dental showing strong growth prospects [16][17]. - Export-oriented companies are maintaining rapid revenue growth, aided by strategic overseas capacity expansions that provide cost advantages [17][18]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The continuation of the "old for new" policy is expected to significantly benefit the home furnishing sector, with a projected sales increase of 16.8% year-on-year for furniture retail in 2024 [9][10]. - Companies to watch include Oppein Home, Sophia, and Gujia Home, which are expected to see performance improvements due to these policies [10]. Packaging - The packaging sector is set to benefit from the expanded scope of the "old for new" policy, particularly in the home appliance and automotive sectors, which will positively impact leading packaging companies [11][12]. Toys - The toy industry is characterized by high growth, with specific segments like building blocks and blind boxes performing well, indicating a robust market environment [13][14]. Paper - The paper industry is experiencing temporary profit pressures due to weak demand and falling prices, but a rebound is anticipated as supply issues are resolved [15]. Essential Consumer Goods - Companies like Morning Glory and Dengkang Dental are expected to see improved performance due to recovering demand in the cultural and office supplies market [16][17]. Exports - Export-oriented companies are projected to continue their growth trajectory, supported by strategic overseas expansions and a decrease in shipping costs [17][18].