2025年第一季度天然气市场报告（英）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the gas market, with expectations of continued demand growth, particularly in Asia, despite a fragile global gas balance [6][14][29]. Core Insights - Global natural gas consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, with a projected increase in 2025, primarily driven by fast-growing markets in Asia [6][14]. - The global gas market remains fragile due to tight supply conditions and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to price volatility [6][14][24]. - The halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine is expected to increase LNG import requirements for the European Union, tightening market fundamentals [6][14][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Global gas demand surged by 2.8%, or 115 billion cubic meters (bcm), year-on-year in 2024, surpassing the average growth rate of 2% from 2010 to 2020 [15]. - The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 45% of the increase in global gas demand, driven by economic expansion [15][16]. - Natural gas is increasingly displacing oil in various sectors, supported by policies and market dynamics [17]. Gas Market Update - Global LNG supply grew by 2.5% (or 13 bcm) in 2024, significantly below the average growth rate of 8% from 2016 to 2020 [24]. - The forecast for 2025 anticipates a 5% increase in LNG supply, driven by the ramp-up of several large LNG projects, particularly in North America [24]. - The halt of Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe is projected to reduce supplies by around 15 bcm in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. Low-Emissions Gases - Global biomethane output increased by an estimated 15% in 2024, with growth led by Europe and North America [30]. - Policies supporting low-emissions hydrogen have become more robust, although project developments remain modest [30]. Key Gas Policies and Market Trends - Natural gas prices moderated significantly in 2024, with European TTF prices averaging USD 11/MBtu, more than double their five-year average [42]. - The correlation between Asian and European gas prices reached an all-time high, reflecting the globalized nature of gas markets [41][45]. - LNG contracting activity remained strong in 2024, with contracted volumes increasing by 27% compared to 2023, driven primarily by the Middle East [69][70]. International Cooperation - The IEA has emphasized the need for greater international cooperation to enhance gas supply security amid geopolitical tensions [32][112]. - New initiatives, such as the Global Early Warning Mechanism, have been launched to improve market transparency and cooperation on gas and LNG supply security [113][114].