家电行业2024年报业绩前瞻：Q4内销以旧换新+出口景气延续，期待白电/黑电/两轮车板块业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is anticipated to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy driving domestic sales and sustained export growth, particularly in the white goods, black goods, and two-wheeler segments [1][9]. Summary by Sections White Goods - Domestic sales in Q4 are driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing year-on-year growth of +24.1%, +8.6%, and +17.4% respectively in October [3]. - Export performance remains strong, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing year-on-year export growth of +54.3%, +18.1%, and +17.8% respectively in October [4]. - The report predicts that national subsidies will further boost mid-to-high-end white goods consumption, leading to stronger profit growth for leading companies in Q4 [4]. Black Goods - The black goods sector is seeing a recovery in shipments, with October to December showing year-on-year growth rates of +3.1%, +6.9%, and +9.7% for television shipments [5]. - TCL's global television shipments in Q4 increased by +19.3%, indicating the effectiveness of its "mid-to-high-end and large-screen" strategy [5]. - The report suggests that the product structure is improving, with Mini LED technology gaining traction, and anticipates strong performance from leading black goods companies in Q4 [5]. Kitchen Appliances - The national subsidy program positively impacts the sales of range hoods and dishwashers, with dishwashers showing over 40% year-on-year growth for two months during Q4 [6]. - The report forecasts retail sales of range hoods and integrated stoves to be 131 billion and 26 billion respectively in Q4, with year-on-year growth rates of +39.4% and -59.6% [6]. - The performance of traditional kitchen appliance companies is expected to be better than that of integrated kitchen appliances due to market differentiation [6]. Small Kitchen Appliances - The domestic market is shifting towards high-end products, with Q4 showing strong growth in exports for various small kitchen appliances, including microwaves and coffee machines [9]. - The report notes that while national subsidies have limited impact, high-end products are likely to benefit first, with overall export growth being robust [9]. Two-Wheelers - The two-wheeler sector is expected to see significant growth in Q4, driven by government policies and expanding demand [10]. - Electric bicycles have benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with over 102,000 units replaced by mid-December [10]. - The report highlights rapid growth in fuel motorcycle sales, with year-on-year increases of +12.24%, +14.86%, and +27.87% from October to December [10].