北京甲级写字楼市场季度报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Beijing Grade A office market, with expectations of continued downward pressure on rental prices and rising vacancy rates in the near term [2][3]. Core Insights - The demand for Grade A office space in Beijing remains sluggish, with rental prices declining to RMB 251.7 per square meter per month, a decrease of 8.8% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year. The average vacancy rate has reached 18.4%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][3][11]. - The market is expected to face significant competition in the coming years, with over 600,000 square meters of new projects anticipated to enter the market by 2025, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [3][7]. - The report highlights a shift in the buyer profile in the investment market, with domestic self-use buyers becoming the main players in large transactions, focusing on long-term value and strategic fit [14][15]. Supply and Demand - In Q4 2024, two new projects were completed, adding a total of 140,000 square meters to the market, bringing the total stock of Grade A office space in Beijing to 13.256 million square meters [2][7]. - The net absorption for Q4 2024 was -17,828 square meters, indicating a trend of relocation and lease renewals rather than new leases [2][4]. - The average vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Beijing is projected to rise to approximately 23.5% in the coming year, with rental prices expected to decline by about 8% year-on-year [3][4]. Rental Trends - The rental price for Grade A office space has seen a significant decline, with the average rent dropping to RMB 251.7 per square meter per month in Q4 2024. This reflects a broader trend of oversupply in the market and insufficient new leasing demand [11][13]. - Owners are increasingly offering incentives such as rent reductions, flexible lease terms, and renovation subsidies to attract and retain tenants, further contributing to the downward pressure on rental prices [11][13]. - Specific submarkets, such as the CBD and Financial Street, have also experienced notable declines in rental prices, with the average rent in the CBD falling below RMB 300 per square meter [13][17].