Industry Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" indicating an attractive performance expectation relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1][13]. Core Insights - January 2025 saw a soft performance in the car market with retail sales of 1.794 million units, a year-on-year decline of 12.1%. The decline is attributed to the end of the national vehicle scrappage and replacement policy and early completion of purchase plans by consumers before the Spring Festival [4]. - Domestic brands outperformed the overall industry, with retail sales of 1.09 million units, a year-on-year decline of only 2%, increasing their market share by 5.9 percentage points to 61% [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 41.5% in January 2025, with retail sales of 744,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.7 percentage points [4]. - Export growth for passenger vehicles slowed, with total exports of 380,000 units in January 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3% but a month-on-month decline of 6% [4]. - Investment insights suggest that post-Spring Festival, several automakers are launching promotional activities, which may lead to a recovery in the car market. The introduction of new models and policies is expected to further boost the new energy vehicle market [4]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies in the automotive sector, with all covered companies rated as "Buy" except for GAC Group and Ruipulan Jun, which are rated "Neutral" [2][11]. - Notable companies include: - CATL (300750 CH) with a target price of 314.11 and a current price of 251.80 [2]. - BYD (1211 HK) with a target price of 379.22 and a current price of 327.80 [2]. - NIO (9866 HK) with a target price of 59.88 and a current price of 33.30, indicating a potential upside of 79.8% [11]. Market Trends - The report includes a year-on-year trend analysis of the automotive market, highlighting a significant decline in sales in January 2025 compared to previous years [3][5]. - The performance of the automotive industry is compared to the Hang Seng Index, showing a divergence in trends [3]. Company Performance - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, where BYD holds a market share of 27% and has recorded significant sales figures [4]. - The report also notes the performance of new entrants in the market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards domestic brands and new energy vehicles [4].
汽车行业：1月车市表现偏软，以旧换新政策+车企促销活动有望推动节后回暖
交银国际证券·2025-02-12 12:02