日央行议息会议点评（2025年1月）：稳步转鹰

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, the highest level since October 2008[2] - Inflation forecasts for FY2025 have been increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.4%, and for FY2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%[3] - Over half of the BOJ's board members (5 out of 9) now expect inflation to remain above 2% until FY2026, an increase from 4 out of 9 in the previous quarter[3] Economic Growth - The economic growth forecast for FY2024 has been slightly downgraded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5%, while forecasts for FY2025-2026 remain above 1%[4] - The potential growth rate of the Japanese economy has been revised upward from 0.5% to 1%, driven by digitalization and human capital investments[4] Market Impact - The Japanese yen strengthened slightly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate falling by 0.75% to 154.89[5] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a minor decline of 0.38% following the interest rate decision[5] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.215%[5] Future Projections - The BOJ may continue to raise interest rates, potentially reaching around 1% by mid-year, with a terminal rate close to 2%[2][5] - If the BOJ's rate hikes exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant withdrawal of global yen liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets like U.S. stocks[5]