宏观经济月报（2025年1月）：海外政策走向分化，中国政策更加积极

Group 1: Overseas Economic Trends - The "strong US, weak Europe" pattern continues, with the US economy remaining robust and market expectations for the Fed's rate cut endpoint possibly above 4%[1] - The European economy is struggling, with manufacturing downturns and expectations for the ECB to cut rates by 100bp this year, bringing the endpoint close to 2%[1] - Japan's economy is improving, prompting the BoJ to raise its short-term policy rate by 25bp to 0.5%, with further rate hikes expected in July[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP surpassed 130 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 134.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.2% and a real growth of 5%[2] - Economic growth in 2024 showed three characteristics: supply exceeding demand, external demand exceeding internal demand, and consumption outperforming investment[2] - The GDP growth rate in Q4 was 5.4%, significantly up from Q3, driven by a rebound in industrial production and consumption[2] Group 3: Financial and Fiscal Conditions - In December, new RMB loans totaled 990 billion yuan, with overall credit demand remaining weak due to hidden debt replacement and weak corporate demand[3] - The M2 money supply growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%, while M1 rose by 2.3 percentage points to -1.4%[3] - The fiscal situation in 2024 showed a "reduced revenue and shortfall" trend, with tax revenues growing positively and non-tax revenues significantly increasing[3]