中国经济数据点评（2024年全年及12月）：如期达标

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.2% and a real growth of 5%[2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 44.5% to GDP growth, capital formation contributed 25.2%, and net exports contributed 30.3%[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial added value increased by 5.8%, outpacing GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points[6] - Exports grew by 5.9%, while domestic investment and retail sales increased by 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively[3] - Real estate investment declined by 10.6%, worsening from a 9.6% drop in 2023[3] Quarterly Performance - GDP growth showed a pattern of "high in the front, low in the middle, and rising at the end," with Q4 growth at 5.4%[4] - Industrial production and retail sales accelerated in Q4, with industrial added value and retail sales growth at 5.7% and 3.7%, respectively[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.2%, heavily impacted by a 10.6% decline in real estate investment[9] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained high growth rates of 9.2%[9] Real Estate Market - In 2024, real estate sales and investment fell by 12.9% and 17.1%, respectively, with a sales price drop of 4.8%[10] - December saw a slight recovery in sales, but investment decline expanded to -12.4%[11] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth was 3.5%, slightly up from 3.4% in 2023, with Q4 showing a recovery to 3.8%[16] - December retail sales increased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.7%, driven by seasonal factors and policy support[16] Future Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2025 is likely to remain at 5%, with expectations of a U-shaped growth pattern throughout the year[18] - Continued support from policy measures and improvements in consumer confidence are anticipated to bolster economic activity in 2025[18]