美国CPI通胀数据点评（2024年12月）：鹰派基调仍难扭转

Inflation Overview - December CPI inflation in the U.S. rose by 0.2 percentage points (pct) to 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations[1] - Core CPI inflation decreased by 0.1 pct to 3.2% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3%[1] - The overall CPI inflation for Q4 2024 increased by 0.5 pct, driven primarily by energy prices[2] Service Inflation Trends - Core service inflation fell by 0.2 pct to 4.4% in December, with housing and non-housing services both contributing to the decline[3] - Housing service inflation dropped to 4.6%, reflecting a cooling housing market, with potential for an additional 1 pct decrease[3] - Average hourly earnings in the service sector decreased by 0.1 pct to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a return to equilibrium in the labor market[4] Commodity Inflation Insights - December commodity CPI inflation turned positive, rising by 0.5 pct to 0.3% year-on-year, with gasoline being a major contributor[5] - Gasoline CPI year-on-year growth increased by 4.7 pct to -3.4%, indicating a recovery in energy prices[5] - The strong dollar and trade deficit are limiting the upward slope of commodity inflation, with the dollar index rising by 7.7% in Q4 2024[5] Market Reactions - Despite resilient inflation data, the market shifted towards a dovish stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts moving from October to July[7] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 10.3 basis points (bp) to 4.26%[7] - Major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.83%[7] Federal Reserve Outlook - Short-term inflation trends suggest a potential decline to around 2.5%, with a possibility of reaching 2%[8] - Medium-term risks of secondary inflation remain significant, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a hawkish stance, projecting policy rates above 4%[8] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen to 2.4%, indicating a stabilization above 2%[10]