1月美国CPI数据：通胀短期偏强，但上半年仍在逐步回落的道路上

Inflation Data - The January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations[2] - The non-seasonally adjusted CPI growth rate rose from 2.9% in December to 3.0%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 3.2% to 3.3%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI accelerated to 0.5%, and the core CPI increased to 0.4%, both stronger than anticipated[2] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, primarily driven by a 15.2% rise in egg prices due to avian influenza[2] - Energy prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -0.5% from -3.9%[4] Core Goods and Services - The deflation in core goods narrowed to -0.1%, with second-hand cars and medical goods contributing to the month-on-month price increase[4] - Core services saw an acceleration in growth, with a month-on-month increase from 0.3% to 0.5%[4] Housing Costs - Housing costs decreased year-on-year to 4.4% from 4.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%[5] - The main components of housing costs, such as rent and owners' equivalent rent, maintained a growth rate of around 0.3%[5] Future Projections - The average CPI for 2025 is projected to rise to 2.6%, with potential risks of exceeding 3% if tariffs are fully implemented[6] - Despite the strong January data, inflation is expected to gradually decline in the first half of 2025, allowing for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[6] Market Reactions - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut in 2025 have shifted from July to September, with only one cut anticipated for the year[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12.4 basis points to 4.619%, reflecting market adjustments to inflation data[6]