农林牧渔行业2024年年报前瞻：生猪业绩兑现肉鸡盈利分化，宠物食品延续高增

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][17]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is expected to see a significant recovery in 2024, with a projected total net profit of 39.106 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 686% [3][4]. - The top five sub-industries by profit growth are: pig farming (+318%), chicken farming (+257%), seed industry (+139%), pet food (+85%), and feed (+65%) [2][3]. - Key companies expected to report substantial profit growth include Petty Holdings (+1840%), Muyuan Foods (+510%), and Lihua Agricultural (+446%) [2][3]. Summary by Sub-Industry Pig Farming - The reduction in breeding capacity has led to decreased supply, driving up pig prices. The average price for pigs is expected to be 16.75 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 11.62% [2][3]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods are projected to sell 71.62 million pigs, achieving a net profit of 17.5 billion yuan, a 510% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The chicken market is experiencing a split in profitability, with white chicken prices declining significantly due to oversupply and weak demand. The average price for chicken is expected to be 9.48 yuan/kg, down 12% year-on-year [2][3]. - Leading companies are expected to report stable profits despite market challenges, with Shengnong Development projected to achieve a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 9% [2][3]. Pet Food - The pet food sector is benefiting from lower raw material prices and strong overseas demand, with exports expected to reach 10.53 billion yuan, a 22.1% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Holdings are expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 630 million yuan and 380 million yuan, respectively [2][3]. Feed - The feed industry is facing pressure, with total production expected to decline by 2.1% to 31.503 million tons. However, leading companies like Haida Group are expected to achieve a net profit of 4.525 billion yuan, a 65% increase [2][3]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing mixed performance due to declining grain prices, with major players like Longping High-Tech expected to report a net profit of 250 million yuan, a 25% increase [2][3]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a slight recovery in immunization demand, but increased competition may lead to profit declines for companies like Shenghua Biotech and Pulaike, with projected net profits down 60% and 48%, respectively [2][3]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the growth potential in the pet food sector, suggesting a focus on companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Holdings, and Petty Holdings [2][3][5]. - The anticipated acceleration in the promotion of genetically modified corn in 2025 is also highlighted, with recommendations to monitor companies like Longping High-Tech and Denghai Seeds [2][3][5].