供给紧约束下的美国经济新平衡——2024年度全球金融市场

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economy is expected to maintain a low growth trajectory in 2024, with the US economy standing out among developed economies, showing resilience despite high interest rates [3][13] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, reducing the benchmark rate three times in 2024, which has led to significant fluctuations in the 10-year US Treasury yield [3][14] - The report highlights the risk of stagflation in the US due to supply constraints and the impact of immigration and tariff policies [3][15] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a weak recovery, with the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates and gradually normalizing monetary policy [4][24] - The Eurozone is facing stagnation, prompting the European Central Bank to initiate a series of rate cuts to support economic recovery [4][28] - Emerging markets show a divergence in inflation and monetary policy, with countries like India and China adopting different approaches to manage their economic conditions [31][35] Summary by Sections Global Bond Market Situation - The US economy is outperforming expectations, with GDP growth projected at 2.80% for 2024, while inflation remains sticky [13][14] - Japan's GDP growth is forecasted at only 0.3% for 2024, with the central bank expected to adopt a cautious approach to interest rate hikes [4][24] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected at 0.80%, with the ECB expected to continue its rate-cutting policy [4][28] Global Foreign Exchange Market Situation - The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile, with a slight depreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar by 2.73% [6][40] - The report anticipates fluctuations in the dollar index driven by the US economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy adjustments [6][40] Global Stock Market Situation - Global stock markets are expected to continue their upward trend, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding significantly [6] - The US stock market is at risk of a correction due to the potential for stagflation [6] Commodities - Gold is expected to maintain its investment appeal, while oil prices are projected to remain volatile with a downward trend [7][15] - Copper prices are likely to experience fluctuations, while iron ore is expected to remain weak [7][15] Crypto Assets and Digital Currencies - Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of 121%, while Ethereum's growth has lagged at 46.3% [8][12] - The report notes a shift towards more favorable international policies regarding crypto assets, which may encourage further adoption [9][12]