2024年4季度中国货币政策执行报告解读：取向不变 节奏改变

Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, with a potential rate cut expected in Q2 2024[1] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, with the current US-China interest rate differential deepening to nearly -300 basis points[1] - The central bank may cumulatively lower the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repo rate) by 30-40 basis points and the 5-year LPR by 40-60 basis points throughout 2025[1] Economic Conditions - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025, supported by strong resilience and potential[3] - External factors, including insufficient global economic growth and inflation risks, are significant constraints on current monetary policy[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for structural monetary policy to focus on technology and consumption, with increased financial support for these areas[3] Market Dynamics - The central bank's net purchase of government bonds in the open market is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan for the year[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with 1.64% seen as a reasonable level at this stage[1] - The report highlights the importance of restoring corporate confidence as a slow variable affecting credit expansion[1]