高盛：房地产行业迁延曲折的企稳之路

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the stabilization of the Chinese real estate sector, suggesting that recent policy easing measures have shown some effectiveness in improving home sales and stabilizing prices [2][3][15]. Core Insights - Since the policy pivot in September 2024, the Chinese real estate sector has begun to show signs of recovery, particularly in major cities, with improved home sales and stabilization of secondary home prices [2][5][15]. - Structural differences within the real estate market are expected to persist, with home sales in large cities outperforming those in smaller cities, and secondary home sales performing better than new home sales [2][18][23]. - The stabilization of home prices, especially in top-tier cities, is viewed as crucial for policymakers to stem the property downturn, with expectations for further easing measures to support this goal [31][32]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The report highlights that home sales have improved sequentially in recent months, particularly in large cities, while construction-related activities continue to weaken [5][15][21]. - The ongoing housing easing cycle is noted to be more significant than previous cycles, with measures such as lowering downpayment ratios and mortgage rates [4][20]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that secondary home transactions accounted for 44% of nationwide home sales in 2024, a significant increase from 19% in 2021, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [29]. - The report also notes that new housing starts have contracted significantly, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [21][22]. Preconditions for Stabilization - For sustainable stabilization of the property sector, the report identifies the need for a significant reduction in housing inventory, higher rental yields, and improved financing conditions for the property sector [32][34]. - The report suggests that further policy support will be necessary to address the ongoing challenges faced by property developers and to stimulate demand in the housing market [35][36].