摩根大通-2025年中国展望：关税战 2.0 与国内政策支持

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The primary theme for 2025 is the risk of a "Tariff War 2.0" which poses significant external risks for China [20][24] - The report outlines a "3-arrow" approach for extraordinary counter-cyclical policy adjustments, focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing [4][76] - The 2025 growth forecast for China is set at 4.3%, with expectations of continued negative GDP deflation [5][24] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - In 2024, China achieved a 5% growth target, primarily driven by net exports contributing 30.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption's contribution fell to 44.5% [5] - Challenges include insufficient domestic demand, deflationary pressures, and a drag from the housing market [5][13] Tariff War 2.0 Risk - The report anticipates a potential tariff increase on China from 20% to 60%, with significant uncertainties regarding timing and scope [23] - The impact of tariffs is analyzed through three channels: direct export shrinkage, weaker investment and consumption, and broader business sentiment [23][24] - Scenario analysis indicates that a 60% tariff could lead to a 1.9% reduction in GDP growth [24] Policy Adjustments - The report emphasizes a significant policy shift since late September, including monetary easing and fiscal measures aimed at risk mitigation [74][76] - Fiscal policy is expected to see a budget deficit exceeding 3% of GDP, with government bond issuance reaching record highs [5][76] - Consumption support measures are anticipated to be modest, estimated at 400-600 billion yuan [78] Global Macro Context - The report discusses the global macro backdrop, highlighting inflation trends and the implications of US policy changes on global growth and inflation [6][9] - It notes that the US election outcomes may influence global economic sentiment and policy directions [9] Consumption and Investment - The report highlights low consumer confidence and uneven recovery in consumption compared to production [18][140] - Structural factors, such as income growth and household saving rates, are identified as key drivers of consumption [135][139] Trade Dynamics - China's export diversification and shifts in trade patterns are discussed, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on trade balances [24][143] - The report notes that China has become the largest auto exporter, reflecting strong volume growth despite lower export prices [144]