Group 1: Market Size and Securities Rate - The reasonable scale of a country's stock market is influenced by financing models and economic development levels[1] - The securities rate, calculated as the market capitalization to GDP ratio, is used to assess the reasonable scale of stock markets[1] - China's current securities rate is approximately 53%, with a market capitalization of about 67 trillion RMB[9] Group 2: Legal Systems and Financing Models - Different legal systems significantly impact the securities rate, with common law countries favoring direct financing and civil law countries relying on indirect financing[1][4] - In the Eurozone, the average securities rate is 54.53%, with Germany at 58.75% and France at 84.77%[4] Group 3: Economic Development Correlation - Higher economic development levels correlate with higher securities rates; for example, the U.S. securities rate increased from 41.77% in 1975 to 193.35% in 2020 as GDP rose from $7,801 to $64,265[6] - This trend is also observed in civil law countries like Germany and France, indicating a similar relationship between GDP and securities rates[6] Group 4: China's Market Potential - Based on historical data, a reasonable securities rate for China is estimated to be between 40% and 60%[9] - Therefore, the reasonable market capitalization for China's A-share market is projected to be between 50 trillion and 75 trillion RMB based on 2023 GDP data[9]
不同融资模式下的股票市场合理规模
CHIEF SECURITIES·2025-02-14 05:15