主题策略-黄金：宏大叙事下，如何看短期节奏

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Short-term gold price increases may pause as actual interest rates cannot explain an 8% rise, with current increases reaching 7.5%[1] - Gold price has exceeded the upper limit of the 95% prediction range based on U.S. debt models, indicating extreme conditions[2] - Central bank gold purchases show a significant negative correlation with gold prices, suggesting that after substantial price increases, central banks may not chase higher prices[3] Group 2: Market Signals and Trends - The current market signals, including price differentials, positions, and inventory, are not favorable for gold price increases[4] - The net long position in gold is at a historical high, but this may lead to a potential short-term correction in prices[5] - The relationship between gold and Bitcoin is still in a recovery phase, suggesting a strategy of "long gold & short Bitcoin" for hedging against short-term risks[6]