【市场聚焦】宏观:对弈

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The macroeconomic landscape for 2025 is expected to revolve around three main lines: 1) Tight fiscal policy in the U.S.; 2) Gradual tariffs; 3) Domestic policies continuing to support without significant changes[1] - The U.S. fiscal tightening could lead to a rapid decline in government employee contributions to non-farm payrolls, potentially resulting in a significant downturn in demand for goods[2] - The new debt ceiling may need to exceed $10 trillion to ensure continued fiscal support, given the previous $2 trillion deficit and an additional $5 trillion already exceeded[2] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Gradual tariffs are anticipated, reflecting market expectations, with potential risks of escalating trade tensions, particularly with China[3] - The internal pressure from U.S. citizens may limit the government's ability to impose sudden and significant tariff increases, as this could lead to immediate demand reductions[3] - If a friendly trade agreement is reached with Canada and Mexico, it could pose a significant risk for China in the context of a potential "Trade War 2.0"[3] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The correlation between tight fiscal expectations, demand recession, U.S. Treasury yields, and commodity prices has been evident over the past two years[5] - If demand weakens, the logic of U.S. Treasury yields and commodity prices being under pressure will likely be reinforced, with a focus on monitoring Treasury yield movements[5] - The emergence of Chinese AI technology could significantly impact U.S. financing capabilities, potentially compressing overseas premiums and leading to a demand recession similar to the 2000 internet bubble[6] Group 4: Domestic Policy and Market Sentiment - The Chinese government is expected to continue its strategic planning, with a focus on transitioning to a service-oriented economy while managing external pressures[4] - Market sentiment may trigger reversals when prices are low enough, but ongoing policy adjustments may keep the long-term transformation trajectory unchanged[4] - The domestic market's upward potential may still rely on supply-side contributions amidst external tariff threats[6]