野村：GB200增长缓慢的情况已被市场消化，现在将目光转向GB300

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment view on ASIC AI plays and suggests accumulating positions in nVidia downstream names after a market correction [11][12]. Core Insights - The global AI server revenue estimate for 2025 has been lowered by 11% due to the slow ramp-up of GB200, with projected growth rates of 75% and 31% for AI server revenue in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][11]. - The report indicates that the market has largely priced in the risks associated with the slow ramp-up of GB200 racks, with expected shipments revised to 28-30K units for 2025 [3][11]. - There is an anticipated acceleration in the migration to B300 from 2Q25, with over 50% of nVidia's chips and modules expected to be based on B300 by that time [4][5]. Summary by Sections AI Server Market - The global server revenue growth is forecasted at 46% and 22% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with AI server revenue growth rates adjusted to 75% and 31% [2][19]. - The actual GB rack shipments are expected to be around 28-30K units in 2025, higher than bearish forecasts of 20-25K units [3][11]. nVidia Supply Chain - The report highlights challenges in the BOM designs for B300 and GB300, indicating that nVidia needs to finalize designs by March to meet production timelines [6][11]. - The supply-demand gap for nVidia's GPUs is estimated to be about 20-23% from 2024 to 2026, indicating potential oversupply risks [13][11]. Capital Expenditures - The capex guidance for top US cloud service providers has been raised to approximately 31% year-on-year for 2025, reflecting strong demand signals [20][21]. - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are all expected to significantly increase their capex in 2025, with Google projecting around $75 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year [21][20]. Component and Thermal Management - The report suggests that companies involved in thermal management, such as AVC and Auras, are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in the liquid cooling market [12][11]. - Companies like Delta and Lite-On Tech are also highlighted for their potential upside due to rising demand for power supply solutions [12][11].