Validity of ACT Composite Score and High School GPA for Predicting Probability of Timely Degree Completion: Examining First-Year College GPA as a Mediator

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ACT Composite score and High School GPA (HSGPA) are significant predictors of college success, particularly first-year GPA (FYGPA) and degree completion [1][9][11] - The study emphasizes the importance of using both ACTC score and HSGPA together to enhance predictive accuracy for college outcomes [5][6][11] - FYGPA serves as a mediator in the relationship between ACTC score, HSGPA, and degree completion, indicating that early college performance is crucial for long-term success [10][39][63] Summary by Sections Introduction - Pre-college academic indicators like ACT scores and HSGPA are effective predictors of success in higher education [1] - Research shows that including ACT scores improves predictive models for college outcomes [1][9] Predictive Validity - HSGPA is influenced by noncognitive factors and is a multidimensional measure of achievement [3][4] - Studies indicate that both ACTC score and HSGPA predict cumulative GPA and degree completion within specified time frames [9] Methodology - The study analyzed data from 19,613 students across 32 institutions, focusing on their ACTC scores, HSGPA, and degree completion status [14][21] - Path analysis was used to explore the relationships between ACTC score, HSGPA, FYGPA, and degree completion [12][39] Results - 31.4% of students completed their degrees within 4 years, and 38.3% by 6 years [27] - The average HSGPA was 3.34, and the average ACTC score was 21.56, indicating a correlation between higher scores and degree completion [27][29] Mediation Analysis - FYGPA significantly mediates the relationship between HSGPA and ACTC score on degree completion by Years 4 and 6 [39][63] - The direct effect of ACTC score on degree completion is stronger than that of HSGPA, while the indirect effect via FYGPA is larger for HSGPA [63] Hierarchical Logistic Regression - The odds ratios indicate that for each standard deviation increase in FYGPA, the odds of completing a degree by Year 4 increase 6.31 times [49] - Family income and gender also play roles in predicting degree completion, with higher income correlating with greater likelihood of graduation [50][53] Discussion - The findings underscore the importance of accurately predicting academic success to improve student outcomes and inform admissions processes [60][62] - The report highlights the need for institutions to utilize both ACTC scores and HSGPA in their predictive models for better resource allocation [62]