保险行业2024年年报前瞻：预计资、负两端均表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the insurance sector is expected to outperform the overall market [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant increase in the net profit of A-share listed insurance companies, projecting a year-on-year growth of 76% to reach 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a low base and strong capital market performance [2]. - Five listed insurance companies have already announced profit increases, with notable growth expected from companies like New China Life (yoy +181%) and China Life (yoy +117%) [2]. - The report highlights that the new business value (NBV) growth will be a key driver for the insurance sector, with expected NBV growth rates for 2024 showing strong performance across major companies [3]. - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to see improvements in the combined cost ratio due to effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [4]. - The report notes that despite market fluctuations in Q4 2024, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued regulatory support for leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - A-share listed insurance companies are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76% [2]. - Specific company forecasts include New China Life (yoy +181%), China Life (yoy +117%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +70%), China Property & Casualty Insurance (yoy +82%), and Ping An (yoy +44%) [2]. New Business Value (NBV) - The report expects strong NBV growth for 2024, with projected increases for major companies: China Property & Casualty (yoy +92%), New China Life (yoy +92%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +35%), Ping An (yoy +31%), and China Life (yoy +23%) [3]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report anticipates a combined premium income of 1.69 trillion yuan for property and casualty insurance companies in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The claims payout is expected to reach 1.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4]. - The combined cost ratio for leading companies is projected to improve slightly compared to the previous year [4]. Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the capital market is expected to remain favorable, with significant gains in major indices [5]. - Regulatory support for leading insurance companies is anticipated, with potential policy relaxations regarding overseas asset allocation and solvency requirements [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: high valuation elasticity stocks such as New China Life and China Life, and balanced stocks like China Property & Casualty, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance [5].