煤炭行业2024年年报业绩前瞻：煤价下跌，24年行业利润中枢下移，高比例长协企业业绩相对稳定

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry for 2024, indicating an expectation for the industry to perform well relative to the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The coal price has declined, leading to a downward shift in the profit center for the industry in 2024, while companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts are expected to have relatively stable performance [2]. - Domestic coal production has seen a slight increase, while coal imports have maintained a high growth rate, with a total of 543 million tons imported in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [3][11]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports has decreased year-on-year, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at approximately 824 RMB/ton, down 14.11% from 2023 [17]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their 2024 annual reports, with some exceeding expectations and others falling short [20]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - National raw coal production for 2024 is projected at 4.759 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The production in Q4 is expected to be 1.279 billion tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4% [4][10]. - Major producing regions show mixed results, with Shanxi's production down 6.9%, while Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have seen increases of 5.4% and 17.5%, respectively [5][10]. Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal at ports has decreased significantly, with the 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping to 824 RMB/ton, a decline of 14.11% year-on-year [17]. - Coking coal prices have also seen substantial declines, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal at 1713 RMB/ton, down 33.08% year-on-year [19]. Company Performance Forecasts - Companies expected to exceed performance expectations include China Shenhua, with an EPS of 2.92, and Electric Power Investment Energy, with an EPS of 2.51, benefiting from stable coal prices and increased electricity sales [20]. - Companies with performance in line with expectations include Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining, while those expected to underperform include Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Black Cat [20].