2024年公用事业行业年报业绩前瞻：降息促进利润改善改革优化盈利模式

Investment Rating - The report rates the utility industry as "Overweight" for 2024, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in coal prices will improve profitability for thermal power companies, with an expected average price of 855 RMB/ton for 2024, down 11.4% year-on-year [4]. - Hydropower is expected to benefit from improved water conditions, with utilization hours projected to increase by 219 hours year-on-year, leading to stable growth in hydropower generation [4]. - Nuclear power is set for growth with 11 new units approved in 2024, maintaining high utilization hours and stable pricing, ensuring robust performance for nuclear companies [4]. - Renewable energy utilization rates are declining, particularly in eastern regions, but offshore wind power remains profitable due to better consumption rates [4]. - Natural gas prices are stabilizing, with a projected 8% increase in consumption, benefiting city gas companies through improved pricing mechanisms [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Coal prices are expected to decline throughout 2024, with a significant reduction during peak seasons, alleviating operational pressures on coal-fired power companies [4]. - Companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International are projected to see substantial profit growth, with Huaneng International's profit expected to increase by 30% [5]. Hydropower - The report anticipates a recovery in hydropower generation due to favorable water conditions, with major hydropower companies expected to maintain stable growth [4]. - Companies such as Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are highlighted for their growth potential, with profit increases projected [5]. Nuclear Power - The nuclear sector is expected to see a stable increase in profits due to high utilization hours and the approval of new units, with China Nuclear Power projected to maintain a strong performance [4][5]. Renewable Energy - The report notes a decrease in utilization rates for renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, but emphasizes the profitability of offshore wind projects in eastern regions [4]. Natural Gas - The natural gas market is expected to see a recovery in profitability for city gas companies, with improved pricing mechanisms and an increase in consumption projected for 2024 [4][5].