ANDRE JUICE(605198) 海通国际·2025-02-16 06:04Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, expecting the stock's total return to exceed the relevant market benchmark by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [5][17]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global juice processor, accounting for approximately 20% of China's apple juice exports, with 63.2% of its 2023 revenue derived from overseas markets [3][17]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with renowned beverage producers across more than 30 countries, enhancing its market presence [3][17]. - The apple juice market is expected to grow, driven by stable demand in developed countries and China's significant production capacity, which constitutes over 50% of global apple output [3][17]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in Shaanxi and has acquired assets in Yan'an, increasing its operational footprint to 10 factories across 7 provinces [3][17]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 1.32 billion RMB, 1.38 billion RMB, and 1.45 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][17]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company's revenue for 2022 was 1.065 billion RMB, with a projected decline to 876 million RMB in 2023, followed by a significant recovery to 1.322 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.9% [2][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 256 million RMB in 2023 to 292 million RMB by 2026, with an EPS forecast of 0.73 RMB, 0.79 RMB, and 0.84 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][9]. - The average gross profit margin for the apple juice business is projected to stabilize around 24% from 2024 to 2026 [5][9]. - The pomace business, while smaller, is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected revenue increase of 80% in 2024 [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The global apple juice consumption market is primarily concentrated in developed countries, which maintain a stable demand trajectory [3][17]. - The domestic juice market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of 164.1 billion RMB [3][17]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on industry changes, with significant advantages over smaller competitors due to its scale, brand recognition, and technological capabilities [3][17].