高盛：中国AI改变游戏规则,同时再次上调25年中国股市目标价！

Investment Rating - The report raises the MSCI China target to 85 and CSI300 target to 4,700, implying 16% and 19% potential price returns respectively [48][49]. Core Insights - The emergence of DeepSeek-R1 and other competitive Chinese AI models has significantly boosted investor optimism, contributing to a 27% rally in HSTECH and 19% in MSCI China over the past month [1][2]. - Widespread AI adoption is estimated to increase Chinese corporate earnings by 2.5% annually over the next decade, potentially raising the fair value of China equity by 15-20% and attracting over US$200 billion in portfolio inflows [2][37]. - The report categorizes the Chinese equity universe into AI Tech and Non-Tech, further divided into six thematic cohorts to analyze the AI ecosystem [3][54]. Summary by Sections AI Impact on Corporate Profits - AI is projected to enhance corporate earnings through productivity gains, cost savings, and new revenue opportunities, with a cumulative effect of 9% on productivity growth over the next decade [22][27][28]. - The report suggests that a 2.5% increase in EPS growth assumptions could lead to a 25% rise in fair value for equities [27][29]. Thematic Investment Framework - The report identifies key sectors within AI Tech, including Semiconductors, Power & Infrastructure, Data & Cloud, and Software & Application, highlighting their potential for growth as AI adoption accelerates [3][54]. - Data & Cloud and Software & Application are favored themes as the AI capex cycle moderates, with expectations for these sectors to outperform [4][77]. Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The report notes that the DeepSeek news has catalyzed significant inflows into Chinese equities, with hedge funds increasing their exposure to China Tech names [39][44]. - It emphasizes the importance of policy delivery, particularly fiscal stimulus, to support sustainable equity gains amid macroeconomic challenges [48][49].