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中芯国际:淡季不淡,指引全面超预期-20250217
688981SMIC(688981) 申万宏源·2025-02-17 10:25

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue of 2.207billioninQ42024,withaquarteroverquartergrowthof1.72.207 billion in Q4 2024, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million, a year-over-year decrease of 45.4% due to declines in investment and financial income [4] - The company’s A-share forecast for 2024 indicates a revenue of 15.917 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 31%, with a gross margin of 21.1% [5] - The company’s overall capacity utilization rate for Q4 2024 was 85.5%, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1,108perwafer,reflectingan8.31,108 per wafer, reflecting an 8.3% increase due to product mix changes [7] - The company expects Q1 2025 sales revenue to be between 2.34 billion and $2.38 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6% to 8% [7] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 3.699 billion yuan, 6.055 billion yuan, and 7.544 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 214, 131, and 105 [7] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 57.796 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 27.7% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 19.3%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [6] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 3.699 billion yuan, a decline of 23.3% year-over-year [6]