2024年国内天然气市场总结及燃气投资主线：天然气供需平稳增长，推荐城燃贸易双主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the natural gas sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [30]. Core Insights - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, driven by the increasing application of natural gas as a clean energy source [4][5]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in the transportation fuel and gas-fired power generation markets, with LNG prices being notably lower than diesel prices, enhancing LNG's cost advantage [4][10]. - The supply structure of natural gas remains stable, with domestic production and imports continuing to rise, maintaining a balanced supply-demand scenario [4][7]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: urban gas and natural gas trading, with expectations of improved profitability due to cost reductions and favorable pricing dynamics [4][20]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Consumption and Supply - China's natural gas consumption has shown a robust growth trend, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.2% from 2015 to 2024 [4][5]. - Domestic gas production is expected to reach 246.4 billion cubic meters in 2024, accounting for approximately 58% of total consumption [5][19]. - The import structure is also evolving, with LNG expected to constitute 58% of total natural gas imports in 2024, reflecting a stable trend in supply sources [7][19]. Transportation Fuel and Power Generation - LNG's cost advantage as a transportation fuel is emphasized, with its average price projected to be only 53% of diesel's price in 2024 [10][11]. - The gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to grow significantly, with installed capacity reaching 14,367 MW by the end of 2024, marking a 14.4% increase year-on-year [11][13]. Investment Recommendations - Urban gas companies are expected to benefit from price adjustments and cost reductions, with specific recommendations for companies like China Resources Gas, New Hope Energy, and Kunlun Energy [20][21]. - In the natural gas trading sector, companies such as New Hope Holdings and Jiu Feng Energy are highlighted for their potential to capitalize on favorable market conditions and price differentials [25][26]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms, including New Hope Holdings and Shenzhen Gas, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [30][31].