高盛：地平线机器人

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, with a 12-month price target of HK$7.90, indicating an upside potential of 15.8$6.82 [12][8]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is set to begin mass production of its J6P platform, which has a computing power of 560 TOPS, in the third quarter of 2025, alongside the delivery of its SuperDrive autonomous driving solution [1][2]. - The company has expanded its partnerships to over 20 brand clients for the Journey 6 platform verification, up from 10 clients when the J6 platform was initially announced in April 2024 [1]. - The earnings forecast for Horizon Robotics has been revised upwards for 2025-2030, primarily due to higher revenues and a lower operating expense ratio, driven by the high-end J6P and SuperDrive solutions [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Product Offerings - The J6P platform is expected to enhance the product mix towards high-end solutions, with mass production of the J6M (128 TOPS) already starting on BYD car models from February 2025 [1]. - The SuperDrive solution demonstrated capabilities in complex driving conditions, including urban, highway, and parking scenarios, showcasing features like obstacle avoidance and dynamic speed control [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for Horizon Robotics have been revised, with projections for 2025 increasing to Rmb4.09 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [8]. - The net loss for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to Rmb1.7 billion and Rmb142 million, respectively, showing an improvement from earlier forecasts [3]. - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly over the forecast period, with adjustments of 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points from 2025 to 2030 due to changes in product mix [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$7.90 is based on an 18.3x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2028E, reflecting the company's long-term growth potential [8][9]. - The report anticipates strong revenue growth of 77% and 60% year-over-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, indicating robust market demand for autonomous driving technologies [9].