美银：中国从可交易到可投资

Investment Rating - The report indicates a structurally optimistic outlook for the China equity market, suggesting a transition from a "tradable" to an "investable" market [2][8]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 23% YTD, while HSCEI/MSCI China were up 13-14% YTD, outperforming the US (+4%), Japan (+2%), and India (-4%) markets [1]. - Key positive drivers include improved US-China relations, the potential of AI in China, the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC), and engagement from private entrepreneurs [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of timing for investors, suggesting that a better entry point for a structural bull market may be available [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The MSCI China Index's valuation rose to approximately 11.3x P/E, which is less than 10% from previous highs of around 12x [3][15]. - The YTD performance of major stock market indices shows that the HSCEI rose nearly 15% YTD, outperforming global peers [9][16]. Sector Analysis - The report notes a narrow focus in the rally, with eCommerce and software sectors surging nearly 40%, while consumer staples and utilities sectors saw declines [4][10]. - Potential sector rotation is anticipated around or post-NPC, with expectations for stimulus-beneficiary sectors to gain traction if new measures are announced [4]. Credit and Economic Indicators - Credit demand remains weak, with year-on-year growth of loans to the real economy declining from 10.7% in January 2024 to 6.5% in January 2025 [3][17]. - The report highlights that credit growth was primarily driven by government bonds, indicating a lack of robust demand in the real economy [12][17].