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能源项推动美通胀超预期,联储年内可能仅降息1次
CHIEF SECURITIES·2025-02-18 07:14

Group 1: Inflation Data - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.9%[1] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, also above the expected 3.1%[1] - The January CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%[1] Group 2: Contribution to CPI - The largest contributor to the January CPI was the household category, contributing 1.577%[3] - Energy prices increased by 1% year-on-year, contributing 0.06% to the CPI, a rise of 0.09 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Food prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, contributing 0.34% to the CPI[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.6%[7] - Gold prices increased, surpassing $2900 per ounce[7] - The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in March 2025 is now 97.5%[7] Group 4: Future Predictions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates only once in 2025, with a reduction of 25 basis points anticipated in the first half of the year[7] - The overall inflation outlook suggests potential challenges in the second half of 2025 due to policy effects from the Trump administration[6]