HUA HONG SEMI(688347) 申万宏源·2025-02-18 09:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 539.2 million for Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.4% [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 11.4%, up 7.4 percentage points year-over-year but down 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [5] - The company experienced a loss of USD 25.2 million primarily due to foreign exchange losses [5] - The full-year revenue for 2024 was USD 2.004 billion, with a gross margin of 10.2% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 58.11 million [5] - The company is expected to maintain a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% in 2024, with significant contributions from the Wuxi Fab 9 [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 16,232 million - 2024E: 14,899 million - 2025E: 17,954 million - 2026E: 27,850 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -3.3% for 2023, -8.2% for 2024E, 20.5% for 2025E, and 55.1% for 2026E [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024E: 418 million - 2025E: 937 million - 2026E: 1,149 million - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024E to 15.9% in 2026E [7] Operational Highlights - The average selling price (ASP) for wafers in Q4 2024 was USD 444 per piece, with a year-over-year increase of 27.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.3% [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate for Q4 2024 was 103.2%, with 8-inch capacity utilization at 105.8% and 12-inch at 100.9% [9] - The company is entering a construction phase for Fab 9, with a capital expenditure of USD 1.506 billion in Q4 2024 [9] - The company anticipates a stable revenue guidance for Q1 2025, with expected sales between USD 530 million and USD 550 million [9] Adjustments and Future Outlook - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect a net profit of 418 million for 2024, 937 million for 2025, and 1,149 million for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 212, 95, and 77 [9] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's asset-heavy nature in the wafer foundry segment and reasonable price-to-book ratios [9]