海外宏观周报（2025年第6期）：通胀和关税忧虑增加，美元却回调了

Group 1: Economic Indicators - January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month[9] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1%[19] - January PPI also surpassed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% compared to the forecast of 3.2%[21] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite rising inflation concerns, the US dollar index fell by over 1% in two consecutive days[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 15 basis points over the same period[9] - Gold prices temporarily retreated from historical highs, dropping below $2900 per ounce[9] Group 3: Trade and Policy Concerns - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, with potential inflation impacts estimated at 0.1-0.2 percentage points[11] - The overall impact of all tariffs could exceed 0.5 percentage points on US inflation, with extreme scenarios possibly exceeding 1 percentage point[12] - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut have shifted to July, with a 30% probability of two cuts this year[12] Group 4: Global Economic Performance - UK GDP for Q4 rose by 1.4% year-on-year, better than the expected 1.1%[27] - Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[27] - Japan's current account surplus decreased significantly, indicating economic pressures[31]